Tropical disturbance 95L likely to become Tropical Storm Beryl before arriving in Caribbean islands by Monday

Chances are rising for the formation of the season’s second named tropical storm over the weekend or early next week in the Caribbean. If it gets named, it will be called Beryl.Computer forecast models now show tropical development is likely as a disturbance, dubbed Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), approaches the Caribbean islands late Sunday or Monday. An invest is a naming convention used by the NHC to identify areas it is investigating for possible tropical development within the next week.However, the FOX Forecast Center said there is considerable uncertainty about where the system will go after that time and how strong it could become.The NHC now has the development chances for Invest 95L in the high range. Those odds are for the development of at least a tropical depression.HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER”Yesterday (Wednesday), a number of the computer simulations showed the system developing into a hurricane next week,” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. “Today (Thursday), the various computer models mostly show a weaker system heading west. If the storm ends up in the Caribbean, which is the consensus, it would be pretty unusual for the system to strengthen, although it has happened.”For now, there is nothing to do but stay informed, especially in the Caribbean islands, Norcross added.BRYAN NORCROSS: UNUSUAL JUNE DEVELOPMENT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS LOOKING MORE LIKELYBefore 2021, it was rare for a June tropical storm to develop in the Atlantic east of the Caribbean. In the last three years, however, it’s happened three times, and Bonnie tried hard in 2022 but didn’t get going until it reached the western Caribbean. Another disturbance dubbed Invest 94L is moving through the Caribbean toward Central America and southern Mexico, bringing the possibility of heavy and dangerous rainfall. HOW DO HURRICANES FORM?The NHC is giving this system a low chance of developing. If it does, it would likely be in the far western Caribbean or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico, if the system survives its trek across land, Norcross said.”On the current schedule, the disturbance will impact Central America and move into the southern Gulf over the weekend,” he explained. “High pressure across the southern U.S. should keep the system well to the south.”